Scientists at the top of the world are picturing what the future holds for Arctic climate. On a given day, they may snowmobile across the Alaska tundra, deploy buoys to the deep bottom of the Arctic Ocean, collect and study microscopic animals from the frigid Arctic seas or sample Siberian peat bogs to figure out how a warming trend might release greenhouse gasses. The complex factors that influence climate change demand a multi-faceted approach—from ships at sea to snowmobiles in Alaska—to study the process.
Researchers go to such literal extremes because they suspect a long-range global climate shift will first show itself in the polar regions. In fact, over the past 30 years or so, scientists and the Arctic peoples, who depend on a delicately balanced environment for their livelihoods, have observed dramatic reductions in the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice, as well as other rapid and, as yet, unexplained environmental changes.
Testifying in 2001 at an Alaska field hearing of the Senate Appropriations Committee in Fairbanks, Alaska, former NSF Director Dr. Rita Colwell stressed the importance of expanding research efforts in the Arctic to understand the region’s complex ecological relationships and the potential effects of a change in its climate.
“The evidence for climate change in the Arctic is mounting and serious, but our picture is not yet comprehensive,” she said. “We do not yet know for certain whether this change is part of a cycle, or is following a long-term, possibly irreversible trend. Understanding the causes, however, is critical to making good policy decisions.
She noted, for example, that at the NSF's Long-term Ecological Research Station at Toolik Lake, Alaska, over a quarter-century of observations have shown that the lake has warmed by 2 degrees centigrade and that the alkalinity of the water has increased. The change in the water chemistry may be due to thawing permafrost” and added that “measurements over longer time-scales are absolutely crucial to tracking climate change.”
She also pointed out very clearly that unlike in other, more accessible areas of the globe, it is only at the beginning of the 21st century and, to a lesser extent, in the closing days of the 20th, that science has been able to begin to comprehensively measure and sample the Arctic environment with a broad array of tools, from nuclear submarines to icebreakers equipped for science to satellite measurements.
“We need copious and accurate observations over time to improve computer models that help us to predict environmental change, but—compared to much of the globe—the Arctic is data-poor. It is difficult to reach much of the region, especially in the winter, and there are very few research stations. NSF is committed to gathering the information—oceanic, terrestrial, aquatic, atmospheric and cultural—that will help us refine our models and help us interpret these changes.”
Whether such changes are permanent or are part of a larger and poorly understood long-term climate cycle—or some manner of both—is what NSF-funded scientists working above the Arctic Circle hope to discover.
NSF plays many roles in Arctic climate research. The foundation chairs the Federal Government's Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC), and NSF's Office of Polar Programs (OPP) supports a wide range of scientific disciplines to carry out research in the Arctic. OPP’s Arctic Natural Sciences program, for example, supports research in the atmospheric sciences, biological sciences, earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.
NSF’s Arctic System Science (ARCSS) program is an interdisciplinary effort to understand the physical, geological, chemical, biological, and social and cultural processes of the Arctic system; how they interact with natural systems elsewhere; and how they may contribute to or be influenced by global changes. The program’s goal is to advance the scientific basis for predicting environmental change—from seasonal to centuries—and to help to formulate policy options to deal with anticipated impacts of global change on humans and society brought about by climate change.
The ARCSS program emphasizes
- understanding the global and regional impacts of the Arctic climate system and its variability
- determining the Arctic’s role in global biogeochemical cycling
- identifying global change effects on the structure and stability of Arctic ecosystems
- establishing links between environmental change and human activity
OPP’s Arctic Social Sciences program supports studies in anthropology, archeology, economics, geography, linguistics, political science, psychology and sociology. Scientists supported by this program also are examining what science linked with native knowledge and tradition can teach us about environmental change. They are also studying how these two approaches overlap to synthesize new knowledge.
Read a speech by former NSF director Rita Colwell on
"The Arctic as a Biocomplex System":
http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/forum/colwell/rc020516arcticforum.htm
